Forecasting Stock Prices

[email protected] Find real-time AAPL - Apple Inc stock quotes, company profile, news and forecasts from CNN Business. 83 in the next year. Now, let me show you a real life application of regression in the stock market. Volatility is a measurement of how much a company's stock price rises and falls over time. AMZN | Complete Amazon. We have earned several awards on the collective of authors and employees of our agency makes the greatest possible efforts in order to fulfill the formulated tasks as quickly and as qualitatively as possible. At its after-hours price, Pinterest is narrowly above its $19 IPO price from April. This statistic gives a forecast for precious metal prices worldwide from 2017 through 2020. For example, we are holding Canara bank stock and want to see how changes in Bank Nifty's (bank index) price affect Canara's stock price. From swing trading strategies and 3x ETF advice to sector analysis our subscription service provides info about individual trades, market corrections or trends. Live BSE/NSE, F&O Quote of Yes Bank Ltd. 1 million in the first nine months of the year vs. This revolutionary service pools the resources of the Motley Fool Community to help you identify the best stocks at the best times to buy them -- and which stocks to avoid. Maximum value 186, while minimum 165. Stock-Forecasting. Note that the Euro chart must be watched closely in 2019 as it may determine major trend changes in the price of gold, impacting directly our gold price forecast for 2019! [ Ed. On average, they expect NIO's share price to reach $4. Some active investors model variations of a stock or other asset to simulate its price and that of the instruments that are based on it, such as derivatives. Averaged Google stock price for month 1354. The two stock forecasting methods any investor or stock trader must use are the Fundamental Research and Stock Forecast Algorithms. TRADING ECONOMICS provides forecasts for major stock market indexes and shares based on its analysts expectations and proprietary global macro models. Hyndman, which can be found here. This statistic gives a forecast for precious metal prices worldwide from 2017 through 2020. Price at the end 2465, change for April 5. the forecasting ability of different models. Predicting Stock Price Movement Using Social Media Analysis Derek Tsui Stanford University Abstract In this project, we aim to predict stock prices by using machine learning techniques on data from StockTwits, a social media platform for investors. On average, they anticipate Apache's stock price to reach $31. Forecasting is the use of historic data to determine the direction of future trends. I'll be including lots of details and explanations with respect to my forecast. (MGEN) Stock Is -5. Stock/Share prices, Yes Bank Ltd. You can read it here. The S&P; 500 rallied significantly right off the bat on Monday, exploding for over 30 points by the time traders settled in. Forecasting stock prices is a bit of a black art with a generally poor win rate. Before describing the code and results, it is noteworthy to point out that forecasting stock returns is really hard! There is a significant. UPDATE 3-Fresenius beats Q3 forecasts with strong sales of home dialysis treatments. The CAPE ratio is therefore only 5. We demonstrate the results, and compare the prediction error, of several. Problem Statement The aim of the project is to examine a number of different forecasting techniques to predict future stock returns based on past returns and numerical news indicators to construct a portfolio of multiple. Why Stock Markets Continue to Rise. In this project, we applied supervised learning methods to stock price trend forecasting. This is an extension of what we have seen, so this move could simply be the. Live BSE/NSE, F&O Quote of Infosys Ltd. gasoline prices but hopefully, when we do see prices climb it will be much more palatable especially if we see pump prices start with a $2- instead of a $3- for most of the time. IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. Our gold forecast signals are good for both forex gold spot market traders and as well as for the long term gold investors in commodities market. Three times a week, you get a detailed look at where we think key Asian-Pacific stock indexes are most likely to head in the coming days. The base value of the FTSE MIB Index was set at the level of the MIB 30 Index at the close of trading on October 31, 2003 at 10644 points. Indonesia Stock Market (JCI) - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on October of 2019. At the end of June 2017, the Nasdaq was up 14. Get free Gold (XAUUSD) daily & weekly technical and fundamental forecasts, analysis, inventory report and news written by FX Empire's professional analysts. , FRM Montgomery Investment Technology, Inc. The successful prediction of a stock's future price could yield significant profit. 61 points (3. technical analysis, MEDIF stock future price, MediPharm Labs Corp. Our Bitcoin price forecast for 2019: $25,000. There are many methods to forecasting stock returns. This is marked by the red down arrow on the chart. This figure is in 2018 dollars, which removes the effect of inflation. edu, [email protected] Our aim is to find a function that will help us predict prices of Canara bank based on the given price of the index. The forecast for beginning of July 321. 16 in the next twelve months. Stock Forecast and Prognosis Trading Stock Markets means that you are trying to beat automated software solution and professionals who are involved with the biggest companies on a global scale. Netflix blamed its U. Twice weekly hotlines with market news, stock upgrades and downgrades keep subscribers informed between issues. Stock And Commodity Prices Don't Forecast Recession a less-positive forecast implies that stock and commodity prices should drop. inteliCharts stock market analysis software provides trades and investors with powerful tools helping them make their trading and investment decisions. The current forecasts were last revised on October 1 of 2019. G-anger University of California, Sun Diego, USA Abstract: In recent years a variety of models which apparently forecast changes in stock market prices have been introduced. Five years later, with Apple stock price at an ever-higher $88. com ABSTRACT The geometric Brownian motion model is widely used to explain the stock price time series. Averaged Apple stock price for month 333. forecast, MEDIF stock price prediction, MEDIF forecast, MediPharm Labs Corp. In a new report, they forecast a price of US$ 1,350 an ounce in three months, US$ 1,375 in six months and US$ 1,450 by next year. 7 Wall Street analysts have issued 12-month price objectives for NIO's stock. The methodology used in this study considered the short-term historical stock prices as well as the day of week as. At its after-hours price, Pinterest is narrowly above its $19 IPO price from April. The company's stock has fallen nearly 25% since it reported second-quarter subscriber growth came in under. We use a range of cookies to give you. Forecasting stock returns using ARIMA model with exogenous variable in R Why is it important? India has a lot to achieve in terms of becoming a developed nation from an economic standpoint. Why Stock Markets Continue to Rise. 87% higher) from Stock Forecast Miragen Therapeutics, Inc. Stock Quotes, and Market. SF is designed to determine the "best" company to invest in by analyzing and predicting stock prices, trends, and fluctuations. TRADING ECONOMICS provides forecasts for major stock market indexes and shares based on its analysts expectations and proprietary global macro models. All content on FT. But this assumption about growth of future stock prices is not scientific. Forecasting stock prices has been regarded as one of the most challenging applications of modern time series forecasting. They are expected to grow in-line with the market. 90 is just a slim 1. Because of the sequential nature of the data, special statistical techniques that account for the dynamic nature of the data are required. Maximum value 357, while minimum 317. From the standpoint of practitioners in finance, asset allocation requires real-time forecasts of stock returns, and improved stock return forecasts hold the promise of enhancing investment performance. The consensus forecast was for Verizon to have signed up 45,400 new Fios internet subscribers and lost 61,400 Fios TV subscribers. Frélii, Inc. The art of forecasting stock prices has been a difficult task for many of the researchers and analysts. Predictive models based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) are at the heart of our service. Forecasting stock prices has been regarded as one of the most challenging applications of modern time series forecasting. Stock Buy Sell to Maximize Profit The cost of a stock on each day is given in an array, find the max profit that you can make by buying and selling in those days. You've been warned - if you don't want to deal with math, now's the time to bail out! Seriously. So, first, I would like to specify the time intervals we will use will be 1,000, because we are interested in forecasting the stock price for the upcoming 1,000 days. Term Box: Best MediPharm Labs Corp. ABC is forecasting its ability to increase market share and set prices. FREE forecast testing. Let's start with the conclusions of our silver price forecast for 2020 and 2021. Dividend yield is calculated by dividing the annual dividend paid on each share by its current price. 200 Federal Street Camden, NJ 08103 Phone: (610) 688-8111 sorin. Price at the end 1336, change for October -5. However, stock forecasting is still severely limited due to its. com Inc stock quotes, company profile, news and forecasts from CNN Business. 61 in August of 1967. It is not possible to predict the prices of individual stocks. The results of. , July 29, 2019. 4% per year since 2007. Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium - Price And Stock Forecasts/Recommendations For 2018 Gold Fields has been among the best performers in terms of stock price gains in 2017 among the world’s. Accurate volatility forecasting is the core task in the risk management in which various portfolios' pricing, hedging, and option strategies are exercised. Oil prices reached the record high of $145/b in 2008 and were $100/b in 2014. At the start of the month, you get the longer-term perspective on the markets and learn how social mood is pushing prices and events. The objective of our work is to take 5 minute daily data on stock prices from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in India and develop a forecasting framework for stock prices. 200 Federal Street Camden, NJ 08103 Phone: (610) 688-8111 sorin. How Stock Markets are Interconnected. technical analysis, MEDIF stock future price, MediPharm Labs Corp. 90 is just a slim 1. We could redo the forecasting manually along above lines with the fol-lowingscript: #Getting the expected return from the estimated model mu=coef(modelfit)["mu"]. The forecast for beginning of January 130. You've been warned - if you don't want to deal with math, now's the time to bail out! Seriously. Price prediction may be useful for both businesses and customers. Historically, the Hong Kong Stock Market (HSI) reached an all time high of 33484. To forecast future stock prices, fundamental analysis combines economic, industry, and company analysis to derive a stock’s fair value called intrinsic value. com Inc stock quotes, company profile, news and forecasts from CNN Business. 59%, and MAE of 1. com is for your general information and use only and is not intended to address your particular requirements. 7% per year. stock news by MarketWatch. Maximum value 140, while minimum 124. Straja, Ph. It covers linear regression and time series forecasting models as well as general principles of thoughtful data analysis. US stock market hits record high as Donald Trump gives trade deal hint - as it happened Virgin Galactic launches (on the New York stock exchange) Published: 28 Oct 2019. Predicting this stock value offers enormous. Get free Silver (XAGUSD) daily & weekly technical and fundamental forecasts, analysis, inventory report and news written by FX Empire's professional analysts. Shiller-CAPE and price-to-book ratio enable reliable forecasts on subsequent stock market returns. This paper is an investigation into the determinants of asymmetries in stock returns. About the NUGL, Inc stock forecast As of 2019 October 28, Monday current price of NUGL stock is 0. 4 Ways To Predict Market Performance. Low volatility occurs when the market or stock prices are in an upward or bullish trend. In this family of reports, MEPS examines price trends and steel market drivers. as well as its conditional volatility. This statistic gives a forecast for precious metal prices worldwide from 2017 through 2020. Term Box: Best Shopify Inc forecast, SHOP stock price prediction, SHOP forecast, Shopify Inc finance tips, SHOP prediction, Shopify Inc analyst report, SHOP stock price predictions 2019, Shopify Inc stock forecast, SHOP forecast tomorrow, Shopify Inc technical analysis, SHOP stock future price, Shopify Inc projections, Shopify Inc market prognosis, SHOP expected stock price. The S&P 500's 2017 return was more than double the big-cap. Hundreds of Financial Charts and Forecasts! At Forecast-Chart. Analysts' forecasts are crucial to setting expected stock prices, which in turn, lead to recommendations. Welcome to the Financial Forecast Center! The Financial Forecast Center is a site that specializes in the prediction of many economic and financial series. View Analyst Price Targets for NIO. problem of stock price forecasting as a classification problem. As it turns out, stock prices do not have a particular trend or seasonality. StocksNeural. Explore copper price trends and forecasts today. But this assumption about growth of future stock prices is not scientific. SAN JOSÉ STATE UNIVERSITY ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT Thayer Watkins. What to expect from the price of gold in 2019 and 2020? Can we reasonably do a gold forecast with specific price targets? In this article we look at our leading indicators for our annual gold price forecast. Open, maximum, minimum, close and average prices for every month. , identify how the stock market would react to publishing these reports. This suggests a possible upside of 48. Earnings/ guidance still in focus for the start as well as oil and gold prices. Behavioral economics and quantitative analysis use many of the same tools of technical analysis, [2] [3] [4] which, being an aspect of active management , stands in contradiction to. VERI | Complete Veritone Inc. This page provides - Italy Stock Market (FTSE MIB) - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Here we use historical data to predict the movement of stock price for next day. Future price of the stock is predicted at 0. 7% per year. 83 in the next year. 8%, with the S&P 500 up just 1. Even the best stock pickers often get it wrong. Tesla Stock Price Forecast 2019, 2020,2021. The objective of our work is to take 5 minute daily data on stock prices from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in India and develop a forecasting framework for stock prices. StockPriceForecastingUsingInformation!from!Yahoo!Finance!and! GoogleTrend!! SeleneYueXu(UCBerkeley)%!! Abstract:! % Stock price forecastingis% a% popular% and. When we talk about locking a price in, we are referring to an advantage General Steel offers to potential buyers. Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence Department of Computer Science University of Manitoba [email protected] stock price forecasting model. The base value of the FTSE MIB Index was set at the level of the MIB 30 Index at the close of trading on October 31, 2003 at 10644 points. For stocks to go up, there has to be more buyers than sellers at a given price. STOCHASTIC MODELING OF STOCK PRICES Sorin R. Stock data used in this research work are historical daily stock prices obtained from two countries stock exchanged. com is for your general information and use only and is not intended to address your particular requirements. Dividend yield=(Annual dividend/current price)*100 For example, if a stock paid an annual. , identify how the stock market would react to publishing these reports. com is for your general information and use only and is not intended to address your particular requirements. Several feed forward ANNs that were trained by the back propagation algorithm have been assessed. The successful prediction of a stock's future price could yield significant profit. Forex and stock market day trading software. High implied volatility is usually a bearish signal, forecasting a pending decline in stock prices. Crude Oil Price Forecast. Their forecasts range from $15. How Stock Markets are Interconnected. Why Stock Markets Continue to Rise. Our gold price target for 2019 is $1550. Straja, Ph. Is The Market Shorting? Well, not exactly. View Analyst Price Targets for Apache. Rowe Price's global multiasset division, to get. Stock Market Forecast 2020. 14 Wall Street analysts have issued 12 month price objectives for Elastic's shares. and what about other economic/financial data such as GDP, interest rate, exchange rate? which is the rational? If you wish to use other data as explanatory variables to your stock price process, you can use an ARIMA-X process. Our software analyzes and predicts stock price fluctuations, turning points, and movement directions with uncanny accuracy. Using this data, we will try to predict the price at which the stock will open on February 29, 2016. Without the ability to make accurate forecasts, the determination to buy or sell a stock. When we talk about locking a price in, we are referring to an advantage General Steel offers to potential buyers. The result is that commodity and stock prices bump up and down. Prior studies on stock market have primarily focused on estimation of stock price index by using financial time series models and data mining techniques. Our aim is to find a function that will help us predict prices of Canara bank based on the given price of the index. NeuroXL Predictor stock forecasting software is a plug-in for Microsoft Excel that uses the power of neural networks to generate accurate stock. Forecasting is a necessity in asset management. PredictWallStreet's stock forecasts beat the stock market by 15. 59%, and MAE of 1. If we take a look at 2015, they had around $40 million interest figure with 2. com we will send you the future trend reversal date (mentioning top/bottom) of September,2019. The time series that we used has a mean price of 91. The in sample period goes from January 2000 to December 2010; the rest of the dataset is the out of sample period. com provides the most mathematically advanced prediction tools. It highly depends on what is currently going on in the market and thus the prices rise and fall. Stock/Share prices, Yes Bank Ltd. Forecasting Crashes: Trading Volume, Past Returns and Conditional Skewness in Stock Prices Joseph Chen Stanford Business School Harrison Hong Stanford Business School Jeremy C. Price at the end 175, change for November -4. We will see that by combining the ARIMA and GARCH models we can significantly outperform a "Buy-and-Hold" approach over. - BOX - Stock Price Today - Zacks. By Milind Paradkar "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future". Please see our methodology page for a better understanding of how this forecast is created. It is a new integrated system, the next generation of the software that intended to replace older SMFT-1 version. Prophet uses a decomposable time series model with three main model components: growth, seasonality and holidays. The long part of this article explains the details behind making gold price forecasts. The in sample period goes from January 2000 to December 2010; the rest of the dataset is the out of sample period. Historically, the Hong Kong Stock Market (HSI) reached an all time high of 33484. 7%), which tends to benefit when trade and growth sentiment is optimistic. Find real-time AMZN - Amazon. All content on FT. 08 in January of 2018 and a record low of 58. Index Terms—data mining, hybrid machine learning, stock price forecasting I. View real-time stock prices and stock quotes for a full financial overview. But EIA kept its estimate for U. The problem is noise which is random. STOCHASTIC MODELING OF STOCK PRICES Sorin R. The successful prediction of a stock's future price could yield significant profit. The algorithm successfully predicted the burst of the Apple stock's price few days in advance. For example, quarterly financial reports can help to predict the stock price, i. With all the insights laid out in this article can we do a Bitcoin price forecast for 2019? Yes, is the answer, and our annotated long term Bitcoin price chart should help us with this. It highly depends on what is currently going on in the market and thus the prices rise and fall. This paper is an investigation into the determinants of asymmetries in stock returns. But with many stocks up sharply from a year ago, investment strategists and fund managers expect more modest stock price gains in 2018. 18, 2019 when the stock price was at 112. The best long-term & short-term Kid Brands share price prognosis for 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024. ca December 12, 1997 Abstract This paper is a survey on the application of neural networks in forecasting stock market prices. Steel prices, despite near record levels in 2018, are still historically low. And it is not possible to predict short-term price changes for indexes. Learn More or watch a quick intro video from David Gardner. Leung, Daouk [ 2 ] hold the view that trading could be made profitable by an accurate prediction of the direction of movement of the stock index. For a single firm, OFM states: the stock price per share is a linear function of the company’s book value per. Straja, Ph. Research Articles. Earnings/ guidance still in focus for the start as well as oil and gold prices. (ARIMA with exogenous. The system is generating both short term up trend buy signals and short term down trend sell signals. Our Bitcoin price forecast for 2019: $25,000. com is for your general information and use only and is not intended to address your particular requirements. BOX detailed stock quotes, stock data, Real-Time ECN, charts, stats and more. The methodology used in this study considered the short-term historical stock prices as well as the day of week as. net analyzes and predicts stock prices using Deep Learning and provides useful trade recommendations (Buy/Sell signals) for the individual traders and asset management companies. com MediPharm Labs Corp. View Box, Inc. MarketTrak computes daily forecasts of the SP500 and other market indices using advanced numerical models Markettrak's Daily Stock Market Forecast Click here to get our stock market forecast - it's free and no login req'd. price increase earlier this year for the slower domestic sub growth in 2019 to date. 59%, and MAE of 1. The tendency of a variable, such as a stock price, to converge on an average value over time is called mean reversion. In financial markets, stock valuation is the method of calculating theoretical values of companies and their stocks. Bitcoin Price: Textbook Stock Trading Indicator Forecasts 31% Rally. But this assumption about growth of future stock prices is not scientific. The Bayesian method can help you refine probability estimates using an. The current forecasts were last revised on October 1 of 2019. ru, international expansion and a mission to develop the infrastructure for a global digital economy and create an online marketplace that connects businesses and consumers from every part of the world makes Alibaba a compelling investment opportunity. Stock Market Forecasting using deep learning ? I wonder what models of deep learning can be successful in forecasting future stock market returns from past data. OFM is a practicable case of Bernard's (1995) Ohlson Approximation Model (see Appendix C). 7 Wall Street analysts have issued 12-month price objectives for NIO's stock. Volatility is a measurement of how much a company's stock price rises and falls over time. Dividend yield is calculated by dividing the annual dividend paid on each share by its current price. Find real-time GE - General Electric Co stock quotes, company profile, news and forecasts from CNN Business. If you want to predict tomorrow's weather in Chicago, you have to consider today's weather further west. This post is part of a series on artificial neural networks (ANN) in TensorFlow and Python. Oil prices reached the record high of $145/b in 2008 and were $100/b in 2014. TACTICAL MOMENTUM algorithms are the best at predicting stock prices. INTRODUCTION Stock investment is one major investment activity. inteliCharts stock market analysis software provides trades and investors with powerful tools helping them make their trading and investment decisions. The experimental result shows that the combined DT+ANN model has 77% accuracy, which is higher than the single ANN and DT models over the electronic industry. >in which case should we analyze a stock price or logarithm transformation of stock price. # Select the relevant close price series stock_prices = TECHM[,4] In the next step, we compute the logarithmic returns of the stock as we want the ARIMA model to forecast the log returns and not the stock price. Forecasting is the use of historic data to determine the direction of future trends. Inflation Rate Forecast. At a very basic level, economists know that stock prices are determined by the supply of and demand for them, and stock prices adjust to keep supply and demand in balance (or equilibrium). Some forecasting methods use the correlation between causing factors and output forecasting parameter. It highly depends on what is currently going on in the market and thus the prices rise and fall. 3, and the last deltaMA35 is (27. The in sample period goes from January 2000 to December 2010; the rest of the dataset is the out of sample period. The objective of our work is to take 5 minute daily data on stock prices from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in India and develop a forecasting framework for stock prices. Netflix's stock gained as much as 11% after reporting international new subscriber additions in the third quarter that beat Wall Street forecasts. In particular, the content does not constitute any form of advice, recommendation, representation, endorsement or arrangement by FT and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making (or refraining from making) any specific investment or other decisions. Machine learning has many applications, one of which is to forecast time series. World equity markets surged and crude prices rose on Friday after a stronger-than-expected U. Stock-Forecasting. ca December 12, 1997 Abstract This paper is a survey on the application of neural networks in forecasting stock market prices. Netflix blamed its U. Stock market forecasts presented have a ten year track record of testing in real time in public view. PredictWallStreet has developed patented algorithms which it applies to incoming community stock predictions in the context of various historical data. OFM is a practicable case of Bernard’s (1995) Ohlson Approximation Model (see Appendix C). They are expected to grow in-line with the market. This means that if you invested $100 now, your current investment may be worth 0$ on 2020 October 28, Wednesday. Volatility is a measurement of how much a company's stock price rises and falls over time. Our software analyzes and predicts stock price fluctuations, turning points, and movement directions with uncanny accuracy. Live BSE/NSE, F&O Quote of Infosys Ltd. stock news by MarketWatch. Analysts' forecasts are crucial to setting expected stock prices, which in turn, lead to recommendations. Today, we're going to show you how that works, with math. Amazon Stock Forecast By Month. Five year charts, ten year charts and charts covering many decades are shown for stock indexes, currencies, interest rates and the economy. forecast, MEDIF stock price prediction, MEDIF forecast, MediPharm Labs Corp. inteliCharts offers free stock market charting and stock market forecasting software. You may choose any one stock from any global market & send your request to hara. Forecasting stock prices has been regarded as one of the most challenging applications of modern time series forecasting. 200 Federal Street Camden, NJ 08103 Phone: (610) 688-8111 sorin. PredictWallStreet's stock forecasts beat the stock market by 15. OFM is a practicable case of Bernard’s (1995) Ohlson Approximation Model (see Appendix C). Forecast & predict with neural network pattern recognition. Retail Sales Forecast. 90 is just a slim 1. Enter Now!. The current forecasts were last revised on October 1 of 2019. The forecasts above give a mean RMSE of 2. The current last sale of $93. Historical Stock Data is critical for testing your investment strategies. At a deeper level, however, stock prices are set by a combination of factors that no analyst can consistently understand or predict. Stock prices are mainly run by investor perception about company's future performance and expected growth. FREE forecast testing. Please see our methodology page for a better understanding of how this forecast is created. In finance, technical analysis is an analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. forecasting stock Software - Free Download forecasting stock - Top 4 Download - Top4Download. Google Stock Price Forecast 2019, 2020,2021. In this forecasting example, we will look at how to interpret the results from a forecast model and make modifications as needed. Here we use historical data to predict the movement of stock price for next day. Businesses utilize forecasting to determine how to allocate their budgets or plan for anticipated expenses for. Then, to “iterations” I will attribute the value of 10, which means I will ask the computer to produce 10 series of future stock price predictions. The problem is noise which is random. com provides the most mathematically advanced prediction tools. Download Excel Stock Forecasting Templates - best software for Windows. Please consider that while TRADING ECONOMICS forecasts are made using our best efforts, they are not investment recommendations. 26, the shares have already added 1. Welcome to the Financial Forecast Center! The Financial Forecast Center is a site that specializes in the prediction of many economic and financial series. Live BSE/NSE, F&O Quote of Reliance Industries Ltd. Such a prediction is not only an alternative to closing price forecastings, but also a very suitable prediction strategy for stock exchange transactions. View Box, Inc. We provide daily charts of futures prices and with unique directional trend forecasts. The fact-checkers, whose work is more and more important for those who prefer facts over lies, police the line between fact and falsehood on a day-to-day basis, and do a great job. Today, my small contribution is to pass along a very good overview that reflects on one of Trump’s favorite overarching falsehoods. Namely: Trump describes an America in which everything was going down the tubes under  Obama, which is why we needed Trump to make America great again. And he claims that this project has come to fruition, with America setting records for prosperity under his leadership and guidance. “Obama bad; Trump good” is pretty much his analysis in all areas and measurement of U.S. activity, especially economically. Even if this were true, it would reflect poorly on Trump’s character, but it has the added problem of being false, a big lie made up of many small ones. Personally, I don’t assume that all economic measurements directly reflect the leadership of whoever occupies the Oval Office, nor am I smart enough to figure out what causes what in the economy. But the idea that presidents get the credit or the blame for the economy during their tenure is a political fact of life. Trump, in his adorable, immodest mendacity, not only claims credit for everything good that happens in the economy, but tells people, literally and specifically, that they have to vote for him even if they hate him, because without his guidance, their 401(k) accounts “will go down the tubes.” That would be offensive even if it were true, but it is utterly false. The stock market has been on a 10-year run of steady gains that began in 2009, the year Barack Obama was inaugurated. But why would anyone care about that? It’s only an unarguable, stubborn fact. Still, speaking of facts, there are so many measurements and indicators of how the economy is doing, that those not committed to an honest investigation can find evidence for whatever they want to believe. Trump and his most committed followers want to believe that everything was terrible under Barack Obama and great under Trump. That’s baloney. Anyone who believes that believes something false. And a series of charts and graphs published Monday in the Washington Post and explained by Economics Correspondent Heather Long provides the data that tells the tale. The details are complicated. Click through to the link above and you’ll learn much. But the overview is pretty simply this: The U.S. economy had a major meltdown in the last year of the George W. Bush presidency. Again, I’m not smart enough to know how much of this was Bush’s “fault.” But he had been in office for six years when the trouble started. So, if it’s ever reasonable to hold a president accountable for the performance of the economy, the timeline is bad for Bush. GDP growth went negative. Job growth fell sharply and then went negative. Median household income shrank. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by more than 5,000 points! U.S. manufacturing output plunged, as did average home values, as did average hourly wages, as did measures of consumer confidence and most other indicators of economic health. (Backup for that is contained in the Post piece I linked to above.) Barack Obama inherited that mess of falling numbers, which continued during his first year in office, 2009, as he put in place policies designed to turn it around. By 2010, Obama’s second year, pretty much all of the negative numbers had turned positive. By the time Obama was up for reelection in 2012, all of them were headed in the right direction, which is certainly among the reasons voters gave him a second term by a solid (not landslide) margin. Basically, all of those good numbers continued throughout the second Obama term. The U.S. GDP, probably the single best measure of how the economy is doing, grew by 2.9 percent in 2015, which was Obama’s seventh year in office and was the best GDP growth number since before the crash of the late Bush years. GDP growth slowed to 1.6 percent in 2016, which may have been among the indicators that supported Trump’s campaign-year argument that everything was going to hell and only he could fix it. During the first year of Trump, GDP growth grew to 2.4 percent, which is decent but not great and anyway, a reasonable person would acknowledge that — to the degree that economic performance is to the credit or blame of the president — the performance in the first year of a new president is a mixture of the old and new policies. In Trump’s second year, 2018, the GDP grew 2.9 percent, equaling Obama’s best year, and so far in 2019, the growth rate has fallen to 2.1 percent, a mediocre number and a decline for which Trump presumably accepts no responsibility and blames either Nancy Pelosi, Ilhan Omar or, if he can swing it, Barack Obama. I suppose it’s natural for a president to want to take credit for everything good that happens on his (or someday her) watch, but not the blame for anything bad. Trump is more blatant about this than most. If we judge by his bad but remarkably steady approval ratings (today, according to the average maintained by 538.com, it’s 41.9 approval/ 53.7 disapproval) the pretty-good economy is not winning him new supporters, nor is his constant exaggeration of his accomplishments costing him many old ones). I already offered it above, but the full Washington Post workup of these numbers, and commentary/explanation by economics correspondent Heather Long, are here. On a related matter, if you care about what used to be called fiscal conservatism, which is the belief that federal debt and deficit matter, here’s a New York Times analysis, based on Congressional Budget Office data, suggesting that the annual budget deficit (that’s the amount the government borrows every year reflecting that amount by which federal spending exceeds revenues) which fell steadily during the Obama years, from a peak of $1.4 trillion at the beginning of the Obama administration, to $585 billion in 2016 (Obama’s last year in office), will be back up to $960 billion this fiscal year, and back over $1 trillion in 2020. (Here’s the New York Times piece detailing those numbers.) Trump is currently floating various tax cuts for the rich and the poor that will presumably worsen those projections, if passed. As the Times piece reported: